WIE: Though we may fear death, and wish we could
avoid it, most people have never taken the idea of immortality
seriously. It seems that if such a thing were to become
possible, it would be a change far beyond any change that has
ever occurred in human history, with almost unimaginable
psychological, social, cultural, economic, and spiritual
implications. Is humanity ready for this kind of change?
RK: Psychologically, we're not equipped to
live five hundred years. So if we were talking only about
conquering disease and aging, and then just living on as human
beings in our current form for hundreds or thousands of years,
that would lead to a serious problem. I think we would develop a
deep ennui, a sort of profound despair. We would get bored with
the level of intelligence we have and the level of experience we
have available to us. I think in order to make this viable, we
need not only radical life extension but radical life expansion.
We need to expand our intelligence and our capacity for
experience as well, which is exactly what these new technologies
will enable us to do. Then an extended life span would become
not only tolerable but a remarkable frontier where we could
pursue the real purpose of life, which is the creation and the
appreciation of knowledge. And I mean knowledge in the broader
sense, including music and art and literature and science and
technology and relationships. We're going to profoundly expand
our ability to do that.
My next book, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans
Transcend Biology, addresses the far-reaching implications
for human life of these overlapping revolutions of genetics,
nanotechnology, and robotics. For example, there are already
feasibility designs showing that we could develop solar panels
and nano-engineered fuel cells that could convert sunlight
efficiently enough to meet all of our energy needs.
Nanotechnology will also enable us to create any physical
product at virtually no cost from very inexpensive raw materials
and information. And nanobots are going to be permeating our
bodies, brains, and environment—doing our work for us,
transforming our environment, cleaning up pollution from earlier
eras, and vastly expanding our intelligence. As we merge with
our technology, we will have billions or trillions of nanobots
in our bloodstreams keeping us healthy, interacting with our
biological neurons, and providing, for example, full-immersion
virtual reality incorporating all of the senses. If you want to
be in real reality, the nanobots will just sit there and do
nothing. If you want to be in virtual reality, they'll shut down
the signals coming from your real senses, replace them with the
signals that you would be experiencing if you were in the
virtual environment, and your brain will feel like it's in that
virtual environment. You can move your virtual body there and
have any kind of encounter you want, incorporating all of the
senses.
But most importantly, this intimate merger of our biological
intelligence with nonbiological intelligence will vastly expand
human intelligence as a whole. I mean, once it gets a foothold
in our brains, our thinking will really be a hybrid of the two,
and ultimately, the nonbiological portion will be much more
powerful, and may give us access to new forms of intelligence
that are very different than anything we've experienced.
This also relates to longevity, because the reality of
longevity for nonbiological systems is different than for
biological systems. Right now, the software of our lives is the
information in our brains. I estimate it to be thousands of
trillions of bytes, which represents all of our memories and
experiences and skills and just the whole state of our brain. So
that's software, and it's inextricably tied up with our
hardware. When the hardware of our brain crashes, the software
dies with it. Our whole concept of life and death has those
intertwined; they're not separable.
But we have already experienced a different type of reality
where they are separable, and that's our software
files. If you buy a new computer, you don't throw all your files
away—your files have a longevity that's independent of the
hardware. Our lives are also information files, which I call our
mind file. So eventually, the information in our brains will be
independent of the hardware substrate that it's running on, just
like software is today. That's the nature of immortality some
decades from now, as our lives increasingly become dominated by
the software of our mind file.
In envisioning the future, people frequently will take one
change and consider how it would impact today's world as if
nothing else is going to change. Most futurist movies are like
that. In Spielberg's Artificial Intelligence, for
example, you have human-level cyborgs, but everything else is
the same—the coffee makers, the cars, no virtual reality.
But you really have to look at all the different changes. If a
very prescient futurist in 1900 had said, “We have a third
of the population today working on farms, but I can see that
will be less than two percent in a century from now,”
people would have said, “Oh my god, everybody's going to
starve.” But not only are we not starving, America's a
major food exporter. How did that happen? Because new
technologies, largely information-based, have improved
productivity not only of food but of everything else.
WIE: Given our current struggles with
overpopulation, many have pointed out that if such technologies
were to become widely available, we would pretty quickly be
faced with a choice between having more children and securing
our own immortality. Do you agree?
RK: I don't think it's going to be
a problem. Yes, radical life extension will enlarge the
population. But soon, all of our products and foods will be
manufactured by nanotechnology replicators that can make
essentially any physical product at almost no cost. So this will
lead to a radical increase in prosperity around the world. And
we've seen that as nations become more prosperous, they lower
their population growth. The most advanced countries have
negative population growth. Now that will reverse again when we
dramatically reduce the death rate. The birth rate will then
exceed the death rate once again, and population will grow. But
how quickly is it going to grow? It's not going to double every
year, it's going to add a few percent every year. So compared to
this very slow expansion of the biological population, the
wealth creation from nanotechnology is going to expand at
explosive rates. We're going to be able to keep up very easily.
WIE: One criticism of the life
extension movement has been that these technologies are only
going to be available to the rich, and therefore, their pursuit
will intensify the class gap between the haves and
have-nots—those who can afford to live forever and those
who can't. Will we end up with a divided world of immortals and
mortals?
RK: That's a misconception also.
The law of accelerating returns says that there's fifty percent
deflation annually in information technology so that you can buy
the same digital camera today for half what it cost to buy it a
year ago. The typical cycle is that a product starts out
unaffordable and actually not working very well—remember
when mobile phones barely worked and only the elite could afford
them? Then it becomes merely expensive and works better, and
then it becomes inexpensive and works very well, and eventually
it's almost free and it's really perfected. So it's only at the
point where technology doesn't work very well that only the rich
can afford it.
Look at the AIDS drugs. They started out costing tens of
thousands of dollars per patient and actually didn't work very
well. Now, at least in the poorer countries, say, in Africa,
it's about a hundred dollars a patient. It's still too much, and
yes, we need to do a lot more. But actually, we have the
opportunity to save millions of people, because the drugs are
only a hundred dollars a person, and they actually work pretty
well now. We're not where we need to be, but the technology has
moved in the right direction. And that progression is going to
accelerate. Ultimately, we'll be able to meet the material needs
of the entire population at almost no cost.